Also note that the second paper for this class is due on October 11. All the rules from the previous paper apply. In this case, focus your paper again on the unemployment rate OR on the labor force participation rate. Go, for example, to http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/10 or to http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm. Explore the data like we did in class (look at the unemployment rates for the young or for the old, or the participation rates for men or women, the duration of unemployment for different kinds of people, etc.). Find something interesting, and -- doing a little research -- explain a pattern or a discrepancy.
Guidelines
- The paper is supposed to be 1 page long. Only 1 page. If you write more than one page (double spaced, 11-point Times New Roman, 1-inch margins), I won't read it. Put the graphs at the end of the paper (they don't count towards the 1-page limit). Make sure to put in lots of graphs: these are the "quantitative evidence" you need to make your argument convincing.
- Writing concisely is surprisingly hard to do. What I recommend is that you first write 2 pages, and then wait 24 hours. Then delete the excess material. Then rewrite to make it look good. Then delete. Repeat until you get to the hard core of your argument.
- Try to write this paper several days in advance of the deadline. Finish it, and let it rest for 24 hours. Then look at it again. You might find a thing here or there that you want to improve, data that you feel you need to add, or an argument that you think you can tighten up. This exercise is likely raise your grade by a whole letter at least. (Turning your paper in more than 24 hours ahead of the deadline gives you a 10% bonus.)
- This is a paper, not a text message. Bad grammar, bad spelling, and bad style are disrespectful of the teacher and indicate that you have a very low opinion of yourself. Give yourself enough respect to present your ideas decently. If I catch more than 3 obvious grammar, spelling, or style mistakes, I will return the paper to you ungraded. If you don't know whether your paper is OK, get a friend who writes well to proofread it. (Did you know that Microsoft Word can check your spelling, your grammar, and even a little bit of your style?)
http://www.exchangerate.com/currency-information/japanese-yen.html?vm=r&s=1
ReplyDeleteThe “yen” is the Japanese form of currency. Like all forms of currency its exchange rate has varied quite a lot over the course of time. After WWII the yen was unstable to say the least, but the exchange rate was set at 360 yen for one US dollar. Later their market stabilized and the yen was under valued on a world scale. This made it so that they we not making as much as they should from exports and spent way too much on their imports. As a result of the “Smithsonian Agreement” (in 1971) the exchange rate was re-established and was now 308 yen to 1 US dollar. 1973 the “Smithsonian egreement was abandoned and the exchange rate changed again now 271 yen for one US dollar. Spiking and falling from 290-300 (1974-76) to 211 (1978). These rise and falls were caused by oil crises (the yen lost it’s value) followed by huge Japanese production growth (increase in value). Despite efforts it is still believed that the yen is undervalued against the other major forms of currency (US Dollar and the Euro). It just goes to show that exhange is not a fair trade, it is business.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j0Zn7jqXNd8MBudk6KBUD_PxBCug?docId=CNG.58f12f1a3aa5487cdde60fac3f27e13e.541
ReplyDeleteFour days ago, Iran’s currency dropped over 40% of its value, and since has remained “paralyzed.” Several protests have begun in the nation’s capital at the Grand Bazaar. Almost all stores have shut down, refusing to sell anything at this rate (28,000 rials per dollar). On Saturday, the dollar rate was introduced on this country, hoping to strengthen the rial by at least 25% after the plummet; however, many refuse to allow this, under the belief that they will lose more money. The official rate of 12,260 rials per dollar is only available to the government and to a few businesses considered essential to the country. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blames the currency collapses on Iran limiting trade and being cut off from the global banking system.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/market-news/currencies/
ReplyDeletehttp://www.currencynews.co.uk/forecast/20121005-5154_exchange-rate-forecasts-predictions-gbp-eur-usd-cad.html
With the US Labor Department’s release of September 2012’s unemployment rate, 7.8 percent (down from 8.1 percent in August), many economists have begun releasing reports and predictions about its impact on the US currency and the market value. Although October 5th’s payroll release in the US showed values are at expected levels, the recent rise in employment has caused the majority of economists to predict the US dollar to “trade on a neutral to negative footing in the near term.” Also released on October 5th was the release of Canadian employment data, which included the creation of 52,100 new jobs—a surprising increase which was well ahead of expectations. This caused the dollar to fall to 97.90 Canadian cents from 98.07 Canadian cents, according to dailyfinance.com. Furthermore, the euro rose to $1.3025 on Friday from $1.3018, which is largely due to the fact that “The European Central Bank (ECB)’s President Draghi did not even discuss the potential for another rate cut for mainland Europe.” Other notable developments released on October 5th include the rise of the dollar from 78.69 Japanese yen from 78.50 yen and the fall of the British pound from $1.6185 to $1.6140.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443982904578044083307684660.html
ReplyDeleteEuro Retreats Versus Dollar
The euro is the European form of currency; the euro has weakened against the dollar due to concerns about Spain's reluctance to request an aid from for the euro-zone bailout fund. The Euro group met in Luxembourg on Monday to discuss plans to shorten debt crises. However, chances are slim for Spain to ask for help this week as Spanish borrowing costs haven't jumped back up to unsustainable levels yet. Meanwhile creditors will not extend loans to Greece, until the country presents the adequate documentation which they have failed to do. This shows how poor the economy is doing in Europe.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/banking/article3978519.ece?homepage=true&ref=wl_home
ReplyDeleteThe article I read was about how to handle exchange rates and how to keep them sturdy. One piece of advice given from G. Padmanabhan, Executive Director, Reserve Bank of India, is to use all hedging tools available and monitor cash flow to make sure that it is stable. This particle article is about the exchange rate of the rupee and how the rupee will always have problems and the key is to just keep it as stable as possible. The rupee started gaining value, but the problem is that the dollar still has a greater value, so there are many exports in India. The dollar has an exchange rate so much greater than the rupee, that people gain money by buying things from India. The main idea proposed to help the exchange rate of the rupee to rise is for companies to start collaborating with each other.
http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/5159/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-one-month-low-rand-australian-dollar-sterling-weaken.html
ReplyDeleteIn this article that I read it says that the pound sterling’s exchange rate fell to a one month low against a broadly stronger dollar this morning. Concerns about a weak UK economic outlook still persist; this also pushed the value of the pound back up to $1.6056 (USD). UK finance minister will confirm plans to cut welfare spending with the fiscal austerity program. The Euros value fell ahead than expected before the euro zone bailout program was launched. Spain will apply for the bailout money although they are expected to top the agenda at the gathering in Luxenburg later this month.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/07/euro-crisis-5
ReplyDeleteThe article above argues that exchange rates are unpredictable. In 1983, Kenneth Rogoff and Richard Meese devised a system that helped them predict the random fluctuation of exchange rates, its called "random walk." At its conception, the theory out proved any others at its time. When a country's economy is negatively affected, the price of their exports are also drop. In theory, other countries will buy more of the country's goods to balance the recent recession.
In the recent euro crisis, two countries have remarkably impacted this theory. First, Germany confirmed this theory. Germany still uses the euro and they are on a steady rise because of their successful exports. Oppositely, Great Britain's exchange rate has decreased to 20% over the past 5 years; however, they also have not had doing well in exports but they are still in the clear. How could this information help us with Greece's decision to stay or leave the Euro? Will the theory hold?
http://www.economy-news.co.uk/fx/1780-exchange-rate-foreacasts-today
ReplyDeleteThe AUD (Australian Dollar) is declining towards parity--equivalence in value--to the American Dollar. William Moore at the RBS believes there is a potentiality for the AUD to fall even farther than just parity.
Today the AUS/USD exchange rate hit 1.0168 and is feverishly diminishing.
Although things are not looking up for the AUD, the TD Securities (the investment branch of the Toronto-Dominion Bank), predict that the euro will become even stronger in relation to the USD due to "better EUR support on dips and [the steady squeezing of shorts, once again]."
The USD is the steady currency with which other countries compare themselves to compute their prosperity, but what more can the US government do to strengthen the USD? Is its stability enough?
http://www.maravipost.com/business-news/economy/1954-private-sector-fixed-exchange-rate-regime-will-jeopardize-economic-recovery.html
ReplyDeleteThis past April, Malawi lessened the value of its currency by 42 percent. The MK (Malawian kwacha) is the type of currency used in that country. It has now even slackened off 20 percent against the US dollar. Currently, the exchange rate of Malawian currency to US dollars is 315MK to $1. Chancellor Kaferapanjira, Chief Executive Officer of Malawi Confederation of Chambers of Commerce and Industries, says that the exchange rate will settle if it is not set at a fixed rate. Clearly, there is little stability in the local currency used in Malawi. As for now, the Reserve Bank of Malawi has chosen to stay the course of fixed economy.
According to exchangerates.org, the pound (GBP) is gaining ground on the euro. This is largely due to political stability in the UK; companies prefer to do business in London, for example, because there is much more economic security there than in places like Greece and Spain, countries facing worsening debt and high unemployment rates. The euro, however, is expected to do better in the long run. Although it lost some value after being introduced, the exchange rate has been getting “gradually lower” and “a break below the all time low of 1.0230 GPB/EUR should reinforce the view that in the very long term the Pound to Euro exchange rate will drop below parity.’’ The article advises traders to take into account things like trend, support, and resistance.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/5077/currency-forecasts-best-exchange-rates-pound-to-euro-money-transfer.html
http://www3.cfo.com/article/2012/10/cash-management_currency-bretton-woods-deflation-swiss-francs-securities-market-programme-mario-draghi
ReplyDeleteThis week’s article talks about the currency war vs economic stability. It is said in this article that the Federal Reserve, European central bank, and the bank of Japan are printing money so that there can be a stronger currency. They are doing this in order to devaluate their currency against commodities. If there is too much money floating around then that could cause damage causing inflation and so on and so forth. The thing is money is only on side of the problem as a whole. Although people want a stronger currency I might not be the answer to their prayers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/korea-bonds-fall-on-u-s-jobs-data-won-drops-from-11-month-high.html
ReplyDeleteThe article I choose to write on shows just how significant of an impact the United States’ economy has on the world market. This article discussed how South Korea’s government bonds dropped in value following the release of new American unemployment rate (the unemployment rate actually went down!). The losses to the South Korean government were not that devastating however and it seems only two changes to their economy will need to be made. For one, the base quarterly interest rate of the country will most likely need to be dropped by roughly.25%, making the quarterly interest rate fairly stable at 2.75% (the yearly interest rate of 2.81% seems to be unaffected). The other side effect is that the national currency, the won, dropped 0.1 percent in value to 1,112.05 per dollar. This is coming almost immediately after the won reached 1,109.57 per dollar earlier on in the year. This was the won’s strongest exchange rate level since Nov. 1, 2011. This just further shows the level of impact America’s economic status has on the rest of the world.
http://www.tripadvisor.com/Travel-g147309-s601/Jamaica:Caribbean:Banks.And.Money.html
ReplyDeleteThe Jamaican dollar (JMD) exchange rate changes every day. Exchanges made at banks and airports will almost always have a fee included. Many businesses in Jamaica accept U.S. currency and will make the calculations on the spot. However, any change that is due to you will by law be given in Jamaican dollars. Today, 1.00 USD is equal to 89.50 JMD. Because of fluctuating exchange rates, relatively small business vendors commonly use and unofficial exchange rate.
http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/5164/exchange-rates-outlook-world-stock-commodity-prices-world-bank-cuts-forecast.html
ReplyDeleteThe world stocks and commodity prices decreased yesterday. But the currency flow is out of the risk zone since the World Bank cut its growth foresees China. The World Bank has predicted that if China slows down then it could worsen the whole world economy. Because of Wall Street stock markets around the world dropped. The banking sector dropped the most. It dropped about 2% a day!! In Europe new data showed the expansion on the second consecutive month, this being because of the easing by central banks and Germany’s permanent bailout fund for the European economy. The German export data show that for the month of August increased to 2.4 percent month-a-month. If this growth keeps up then we might see investors going back to the Euro. This would drive the Sterling to Euro exchange rate back down to 1.200 GBP/EURO .